A Sneak Peek at the Spring Weather Forecast
With two days left until spring, many Americans will finally see warmer temperatures, according to the latest forecast for North America from The Weather Company, an IBM Business (NYSE: IBM). According to the forecast, the Northeastern, Southeastern, and Northwestern U.S. will enjoy a warmer-than-normal spring, with the Plains and Southwest experiencing temperatures below normal. Rainfall will skew above-normal in most areas excluding portions of the Northeast and Southwest.
“After an extended cold period across much of the Northern U.S. during the last month, the pattern finally appears to be relenting as we head into spring,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company. “Our models continue to suggest a general warm-north and cool-south pattern, with above-normal temperatures expected across the Northeastern and Northwestern U.S., and below-normal temperatures across the Plains and Southwest. We expect a wet spring in many areas, especially across the Plains and Southeast.”
Whether you’re heading to the beach or hitting the slopes for spring break this year, the weather just may be on your side. For April and May, The Weather Company expects warming patterns along the Eastern seaboard and Pacific Northwest, and colder weather throughout the Plains into Colorado, Montana and Utah. On the heels of a wet 2018, soil moisture values are high across the eastern half of the country and much lower in middle America, causing the Plains to cool.
April
- Northeast – Warmer and wetter than normal
- Southeast – Warmer and wetter than normal
- North Central – Cooler and wetter than normal
- South Central – Cooler and wetter than normal
- Northwest – Warmer and drier than normal
- Southwest – Cooler and wetter than normal
May
- Northeast – Warmer and drier than normal
- Southeast – Warmer and wetter than normal
- North Central – Warmer and drier than normal
- South Central – Cooler and wetter than normal
- Northwest – Warmer and wetter than normal
- Southwest – Cooler and wetter than normal
June
- Northeast – Warmer and wetter than normal
- Southeast – Warmer and wetter than normal
- North Central – Cooler and drier than normal
- South Central – Warmer and wetter than normal
- Northwest – Warmer and wetter than normal
- Southwest – Cooler and wetter than normal
El Niño Lingers, The Sequel
Heading into June and the summer season, El Niño will linger into a second year, bringing cooler-than-normal temperatures across the Northern and Central Plains, along with parts of Nevada and California. The most significant warmth is expected in the Northwest, with both coasts seeing above-normal summer heat.
El Niño is characterized by a band of warm ocean water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, accompanied by high air pressure in the western Pacific and low air pressure in the eastern Pacific. Back-to-back El Niño events are fairly uncommon, only happening five times since 1950. In four of those five years, the Northern Plains and Great Lakes experienced below-normal summer temperatures, with warmer-than-normal temperatures across the southern tier and Pacific Northwest.
“Emerging El Niño conditions over the last year resulted in a historically wet period across much of the United States,” added Crawford. “The anomalously high soil moisture, combined with lingering El Niño conditions, will likely limit the magnitude of the summer heat this year, relative to the very hot summer of 2018.”
The Weather Company helps people make informed decisions and take action in the face of weather. The company offers the most accurate forecasts globally–more than 25 billion per day–with personalized and actionable weather data and insights to more than 300 million consumers and thousands of businesses worldwide. The Weather Company content and alerts are available in 62 languages on The Weather Company digital properties, including weather.com, The Weather Channel app on iOS and Android, wunderground.com and the Weather Underground app.
Later this year, IBM and The Weather Company will release its new Global High Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (GRAF), the first hourly-updating commercial weather model that offers nearly 200 percent improvement in forecasting resolution in locations around the globe. Today, most of the world has to settle for less accurate forecasts for predictions that cover 12- to 15-kilometer swaths of land–too wide to capture many weather phenomena. And, traditionally, leading weather models update less frequently, only every 6 to 12 hours. In contrast, GRAF will provide 3-kilometer resolution that updates hourly, democratizing weather forecasts globally and delivering reliable predictions for the day ahead.
