Road to the Elections in 2020: March Update

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Whether you are a staunch Republican who supports Trump, or if last time around, you were ‘with her’, the road to the 2020 elections is full of bumps and pot-holes as we near the final fork in the road that decides the primary candidate for each of the two majority parties.

Today is March 12th. Well, it might not be March 12rth when you are reading this, but while writing this article, it’s 1:00 PM on Thursday afternoon. Two hours ago the latest Trump approval ratings were updated and it isn’t looking great for the commander in chief. His disapproval rate is 53.2%, while only 42.4% of the population approves of his duties in the White House.

Some of this latest recent dip probably has to do with his unilateral decision to ban most flights from to and from Europe without consulting the EU and stocks have taken and immediate dive. However, back in November, his disapproval rate went over 55%. Back in January of 2019, it spiked at 56%. And on December 16 of 2017, it hit an amazing 57.5%. Trump owns the lowest average approval rating in history.

But will that stop him from winning the next election? Maybe not.

Something’s gotta give for the Sanders’ camp. Bernie is feeling the burn of a lower-than-expected female turnout. At this point, according to SBR, the odds have Bernie Sanders at +1600 to win the nomination. But Hillary Clinton is also +1600.

Wait … what? Yes, you read that correctly. A person who isn’t even a candidate for the Democratic primaries has the same odds to win as Sanders. Go figure. The simple fact is that Biden has already snatched up 837 delegates. Bernie Sanders only has 689. But with Super Twosday, Sanders has a chance to catch up with Ohio, Arizona, Florida, and Illinois. If he doesn’t gain ground then … it’s a lost cause.

In many ways this is surprising. Biden basically screamed platitudes into an over-gained mic and blasted everyone’s ears out. Meanwhile, Bernie actually had some good stuff to say. Still, he was only up by .2% in Washington state, which was mostly early, mail-in ballots – which means he could be in serious trouble in the Pacific Northwest. And similarly, he was up by 8.7 in California, yet is two points down, to 6.7. Again, this is mostly mail-in so his lead is rapidly diminishing in that state as well. In short, Sanders needs a miracle or he’s going to feel the Biden burn.

It’s looking more and more like Joe Biden’s path to the nomination is clear. He won all three of the Triple M’s … Missouri, Michigan, and Mississippi. And he did so handily. Missouri was a Sanders-type state in 2016. He lost by less than a point 4 years ago. This time around he was pummeled by 25 points.

The only real place that Sanders pulled ahead was Dakota, where he won mostly due to some of the worst turnout ever. But Sanders’ real problems, especially with educated female voters is not that people don’t believe in his ideas and ideals and won’t get behind them. The problem is, they believe what he is trying to accomplish is too radical to actually be accomplished. Some have stated that they are backing Biden, not because of his ideals or platform, but because he will be the better candidate for reuniting the Democratic party. Sanders, as well-meaning as he is, will create more infighting and disruption.

But what about Trump?

Well, he is the clear favorite to win the 2020 Presidential Election. As of March 8th, his odds were as short as -130 to repeat as POTUS. He has no competition for the Republican nomination and Las Vegas – who tends to be correct a lot– thinks that he has a sizable advantage over Biden. This probably stems from the fact that the Republican party, no matter what you might think of the current administration, has been much more unified over recent years than the Democratic National Convention.

So, despite some of the lowest approval ratings in the history of United State politics, there is a very real chance that Donald Trump could see a second term in office.

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