What are the Implications of Krysten Sinema Not Running for Reelection?

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Kyrsten Sinema, the former Democratic and now independent US Senator from Arizona was first elected in 2018. Her decision to not run for re-election in 2024 has significant implications for the balance of power in the Senate and the future direction of the Democratic Party.

Those who would likely welcome her decision not to run again include:

  1. Progressive Democrats: Many progressives have been critical of Sinema for her moderate-to-conservative voting record and her role in obstructing some of President Biden’s agenda items, such as the Build Back Better Act. Her departure could pave the way for a more progressive Democrat to represent Arizona. In many ways, to them, the only value Sinema currently gives is caucusing with other Democrats.
  2. Republicans: With Sinema’s seat up for grabs, Republicans would see this an opportunity to potentially flip the seat and gain an advantage in the Senate. If the general election goes to the Democrats, that will further weakens the GOP’s already weak position in the Senate.

On the other hand, those who may be disappointed by her decision could include:

  1. Centrist Democrats: Sinema has positioned herself as a moderate, independent voice in the Senate. Some centrist Democrats may view her departure as a loss for their wing of the party.
  2. Supporters of bipartisanship: Sinema has been willing to work across the aisle on certain issues, and her absence could potentially make it harder to find common ground between the parties in the Senate.
  3. The Biden administration: While Sinema has sometimes been a thorn in the side of the administration, her vote has been crucial in maintaining a razor-thin Democratic majority in the Senate. In addition, her independence made her valuable in negotiating with Republicans.

It’s important to note that the implications of her decision will also depend on who ends up winning her seat and their chances of winning.

Here are the Republicans and Democrats running:

Potential Republican candidates:

  • Kari Lake: The former news anchor and Republican nominee for Arizona governor in 2022 has been mentioned as a possible Senate candidate.
  • Blake Masters: The venture capitalist and 2022 Republican Senate candidate in Arizona could potentially run again.
  • Karrin Taylor Robson: The real estate developer and 2022 Republican gubernatorial candidate may consider a Senate bid.

Potential Democratic candidates:

  • Ruben Gallego: The current U.S. Representative from Arizona’s 7th congressional district is seen as a frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.
  • Katie Hobbs: The current Arizona governor could potentially run for the Senate seat instead of seeking re-election as governor.
  • Greg Stanton: The current U.S. Representative from Arizona’s 9th district and former mayor of Phoenix has been mentioned as a possible candidate.

Additionally, the broader political landscape in 2024, including the outcome of the Presidential election and other Senate races, will play a role in determining the overall balance of power in the Senate.

Ultimately, Sinema’s decision not to run for re-election is a significant development in Arizona and national politics, and its impact will be closely watched by political observers and stakeholders across the ideological spectrum. we will know more after the November elections.

Senator Sinema’s announcement:

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